Intraday Volatility Spike — Week 16, 2025

Storm-driven generation curtailments across the Iberian peninsula created exceptional intraday spreads. A structured position in the 1-hour product would have returned €45/MWh on peak hours.

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Market Overview

Week 13 produced the largest intraday spread event of Q1 2025. Storm Aurelia caused wind curtailments across Spain and Portugal from Tuesday through Friday, removing approximately 4.2 GW of expected generation from the market balance.

The result was a series of sharp intraday price spikes, particularly between 17:00 and 21:00 CET — precisely when residential demand peaks and solar output drops.

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Key Observations

1 MIBEL day-ahead prices averaged €112/MWh vs. €79 the prior week.

2 Intraday hour product in Spain peaked at €310/MWh on Thursday 18:00.

3 FCR revenues held steady — volatility did not substantially impact balancing market.

4 French interconnector flow reversed mid-week for 18 hours.

5 German BESS operators benefited from elevated aFRR prices as secondary response.

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Interpretation

The storm event is a textbook case of weather-driven dislocation. The Iberian market continues to be the most sensitive zone to renewable generation variability, and operators with cross-border hedging capability extracted the most value.

Liquid positions in the 1-hour intraday product, entered before 16:00 on Tuesday and Thursday, were the highest-returning trades of the week.

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Revenue Insight

Estimated additional revenue from active intraday participation (Iberian zone): - 10 MW asset with 2-hour discharge capacity: €18,000–€26,000 for the week - Standard FCR-only strategy: €9,500 Delta attributable to intraday volatility capture: 90–170% uplift

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Market Outlook

Weather normalises in Week 14. Iberian spreads expected to compress. Attention should shift to German aFRR, which remains structurally elevated in Q2 due to thermal plant retirements.